Tariff Tracker

It is Friday, October 3rd, and here’s your comprehensive Tariff Tracker:

With the full wave of Trump’s October tariffs now in effect, US manufacturing supply chains brace for margin pressure, a turbulent holiday shopping season, and critical North American trade talks next week as Canada’s PM Carney heads to Washington seeking tariff relief for steel, aluminum, autos, and lumber.

Helpful links:
– Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods
– List of products from the United States subject to 25 per cent tariffs
– ITA–Import Tariffs Overview and Resources
– How to Support Canadian Exporters Through United States Tariff Challenges

Ontario and Quebec Wood Manufacturers Warn of Layoffs

Wood manufacturing clusters in Ontario are reporting “anxiety and immediate threat of layoffs” as 10–50% duties on lumber, cabinets, and furniture put export competitiveness in jeopardy. New US rules on tariff stacking and origin compliance add to the complexity for Canadian exporters.

Legal Clarity Pending—Supreme Court to Rule in November

The business community remains in limbo as the Supreme Court prepares to rule in November on the legality of Trump’s broad tariff authority. Between $750 billion and $1 trillion in tariff refunds hang in the balance; businesses and investors are already speculating in secondary markets for possible payouts.

Holiday Retailers Brace for Higher Prices, Tariff-Fueled Job Cuts

With supply chain and input cost shocks building, holiday shopping season 2025 is expected to see higher inflation and weaker sales, particularly in hard-hit furniture and electronics. Smaller importers and manufacturers are most vulnerable, as tariffs are passed down lines, crowding out margins and threatening layoffs during the critical peak period.

Canadian and Mexican Talks Set for Washington—Carney Seeks Relief

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and trade minister Dominic LeBlanc will meet President Trump next week in DC to negotiate removal of US tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and timber—Canada’s most affected manufacturing sectors. Canada has already dropped most retaliatory duties to help reset the USMCA trade relationship. Both parties hope progress on tariff relief can be made before the escalation of 2026 rates or further US investigation into cross-border auto parts is finalized.

Manufacturing Impact: Supply Chains, Input Costs, and Demand Risks

US manufacturing margins are squeezed as average tariff rates approach 18% (up from 2.5% just last year). S&P Global’s manufacturing PMI warns that September’s modest output growth is masking falling new orders, rising stockpiles, and increased tariff-induced supplier delays—factors likely to curb future production unless demand rebounds. Many companies are offloading inventory at discounted rates but remain at risk of further cost escalation and labor cuts if demand stays weak.

Trump’s Tariff Wall Now Fully Active—Key Dates and Next Hikes:

100% tariffs on many brand-name pharmaceutical imports and 25% on heavy trucks are now fully enforced, with individual pharma deals granting limited exemptions in exchange for US investment and pricing commitments.

The next round hits October 14, with a 10% duty on imported timber/lumber and 25% on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered wooden furniture; these climb up to 50% in 2026 for nations without a trade pact.

EU Auto and Machinery Tariffs Loom

As US-EU trade tensions rise, the European Commission is preparing a targeted tariff package against US-manufactured cars and machinery. Brussels indicated the measures could go into effect by mid-August if the US follows through with new tech-sector tariffs. The EU plans to impose duties of up to 25%, which would significantly impact American exporters .

Factory and Consumer Prices Rising

With the new tariffs, US manufacturing is experiencing the most significant input cost jump since the 1930s. Apparel, electronics, and automotive producers are already seeing price increases, and the Yale Budget Lab notes overall consumer prices could be up nearly 2% in the short term, pressuring margins and downstream markets.

Gold Bars Tariff Rocks Swiss Refiners and Global Markets

The US shock-imposed a new tariff on 1kg and 100oz gold bars, derailing expectations and sending bullion prices to record highs. The move especially impacts Switzerland, the world’s leading gold refiner, as US Customs confirmed the new duty despite industry pushback. Swiss officials are scrambling for relief, warning of severe damage to their pivotal export industry.

US Expands 25% Tariffs to Canada, Mexico—Oil Imports May Be Excepted

The Trump administration reaffirmed its threat to apply 25% tariffs to most Canadian and Mexican goods but said it “may or may not” exempt oil imports as a potential concession. Canadian officials have warned such a move could force the US to seek oil from less stable suppliers, reinforcing their case for selective relief.

Trump Warns of New Tech Export Curbs Over Digital Taxes

Trump threatened “substantial” new tariffs and semiconductor export restrictions against countries imposing digital services taxes on US tech firms. The warning targets policies that “discriminate against American technology” while giving “a complete pass to China’s largest tech companies.” The threat covers advanced technology and chip exports.

Trump Threatens 200% China Tariffs Over Rare-Earth Magnets

President Trump warned he could impose 200% tariffs on China if Beijing restricts rare-earth magnet exports, threatening the extended trade truce. Trump revealed the US has grounded 200 Chinese aircraft by withholding Boeing parts as leverage, stating “They have to give us magnets.” China’s rare-earth exports have rebounded to pre-April levels, with US shipments surging 660% in June alone.

Mexico Bows to Trump Pressure with New China Tariffs

Mexico will implement increased tariffs on Chinese imports as part of its 2026 budget plan, targeting vehicles, textiles, and plastics to protect domestic industries from low-cost foreign goods. The move follows Trump’s complaints that cheap Chinese products are entering the US through Mexico. This represents a major policy shift as Mexico joins the US tariff regime against China, securing continued favorable treatment under ongoing negotiations.

Steel and Aluminum Tariff Expansion Hits Canadian Auto Parts

The US has expanded Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs to include hundreds of additional products, specifically targeting Canadian auto parts that were previously exempt under CUSMA. This represents a “workaround” to tariff more Canadian goods while maintaining the appearance of honoring the trade agreement. Canada has responded by implementing a 25% surtax on Chinese steel and aluminum to prevent dumping, while retaining retaliatory tariffs on US steel, aluminum, and autos.

Canadian Manufacturing Shows Signs of Stabilization Despite Job Losses

While Canada’s manufacturing sector lost 29,400 jobs in Q2 2025 (a 3.5% decline), the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.3 in August from 46.1 in July, indicating slower contraction. Export orders climbed to 44.8 from 41.9, suggesting reduced uncertainty around tariff impacts. However, Ontario unemployment in manufacturing-heavy Windsor surged to 11.2%, and 44% of manufacturers have delayed investments.

Federal Appeals Court Rules Trump’s IEEPA Tariffs Unconstitutional

The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled 7-4 on Friday that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose global tariffs. The court determined that only Congress has the constitutional power to levy taxes, including tariffs. However, the tariffs remain in effect until October 14 to allow for a Supreme Court appeal. The ruling affects the majority of Trump’s tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, China, and nearly 60 other countries.

EU Proposes Removing All US Industrial Tariffs

The European Commission proposed eliminating tariffs on all US industrial goods, potentially triggering retroactive cuts in US tariffs on European products. The move represents a major concession to Trump’s demands and could significantly boost transatlantic trade if implemented. Details on timing and scope remain under negotiation.

Manufacturing Contraction Deepens—John Deere Cites Tariff Instability

US manufacturing continued its sixth consecutive month of contraction, with executives citing “tariff instability” as a primary concern. John Deere reported significant challenges as tariff-driven cost increases hit both the company’s supply chains and its farmer customers. Fortune analysis shows Trump’s policies are undermining the domestic manufacturers they were supposed to protect.

Canada Eliminates Most US Retaliatory Tariffs Effective September 1/h4>
Canada removed retaliatory tariffs on most CUSMA-compliant US goods starting September 1, leaving only duties on steel, aluminum, and automobiles in place. The move reduces Canadian tariffs to just 313 HS codes, down from over 1,000 previously. This represents the most significant tariff reduction between the two countries since the trade war began.

New Tariff Exemption Framework Takes Effect Today—45+ Product Categories Eligible

Trump’s September 5 executive order granting tariff exemptions to “aligned partners” with reciprocal trade agreements officially takes effect at 12:01 AM EDT. Over 45 categories of goods now qualify for zero import tariffs, including nickel (essential for EV batteries and stainless steel), gold in all forms, pharmaceutical compounds like lidocaine, chemicals, graphite, neodymium magnets, and LED lightbulbs. The exemptions apply to products the US “cannot produce domestically or in sufficient quantities” and align with existing agreements with Japan and the EU.

Canada Maintains Steel and Auto Tariffs Despite Broader Relief

While Canada eliminated most retaliatory tariffs on September 1, duties remain on US steel, aluminum, and automobiles. The remaining tariffs cover just 313 HS product codes, down from over 1,000 previously. Canadian officials indicate these sectors will retain protection until broader trade negotiations conclude.

US Container Imports Surge in August—Stockpiling Ahead of Court Ruling

US container imports increased significantly in August as businesses rushed to stockpile goods ahead of the October 14 Supreme Court deadline on tariff legality. Import volumes rose despite higher costs, with companies frontloading inventory to avoid potential disruptions. However, industry analysts warn the year-end outlook remains dim due to ongoing tariff uncertainty and elevated trade tensions.

Wholesale Prices Fall Despite Tariff Pressures

US wholesale prices unexpectedly declined 0.1% in August, cooling from July’s sharp increase despite widespread tariff implementation. The producer price index drop suggests tariff costs may not be passing through to wholesale markets as quickly as anticipated, though economists warn this could reflect inventory drawdowns and temporary effects rather than sustained trends.

US Companies Report China Sales Decline—Two-Thirds Cite Tariff Impact

A new survey of 254 US companies operating in China found nearly two-thirds report reduced expected revenues for their China operations in 2025 due to Trump’s tariffs. The American Chamber of Commerce in China survey highlights how the 30% tariff rate (extended until November 10) is hurting American businesses’ ability to compete in the world’s second-largest economy. Companies face the dual challenge of higher export costs and Chinese retaliatory measures.

Swatch Trolls Trump with “39-93” Watch Over Swiss Tariffs

Swiss watchmaker Swatch launched a special edition timepiece featuring reversed numbers 93 and 36 on the watch face, a humorous dig at Trump’s punitive 39% tariffs on Switzerland imposed August 1. The move reflects growing international frustration with US trade policy, as Swiss voters now back a new EU deal 2-1 following the “US tariff shock”.

Treasury Urges G7 to Impose “Meaningful Tariffs” on China and India Over Russian Oil

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on G7 and EU allies to impose significant tariffs on Chinese and Indian goods to halt their Russian oil purchases, convening an emergency G7 finance meeting to discuss pressure tactics on Moscow. Trump warned his “patience with Putin is running out” and threatened sanctions on banks and oil “very severely” if peace talks fail. However, Trump has avoided additional China tariffs to preserve the delicate trade truce keeping Chinese retaliatory rates below 100%.

Bank of Canada Cuts Rate to 2.5%—Cites US Tariff Economic Damage

The Bank of Canada reduced its key policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 2.5% Wednesday, citing risks to the economy from US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Bank Governor Tiff Macklem stated: “The Canadian economy is being affected by both US tariffs and the unpredictability of US trade policy. GDP declined by 1.6% in the second quarter.” The bank noted manufacturing job losses and business investment delays as key concerns.

Canada-Mexico Summit Targets Coordinated US Trade Response

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Mexico City Thursday for a two-day mission to improve recently strained ties and seek a common front in crucial USMCA renegotiation talks with the United States. The meeting comes as both countries face pressure from Trump to impose tariffs on China and navigate complex trade relationships. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem confirmed clear evidence that Trump’s tariffs are causing job losses in Canadian auto, steel, and aluminum industries.

Small Business Tariff Costs Hit $856,000 Annually

Fortune analysis reveals small businesses face average annual costs of $856,000 from tariff policy changes, with only 37% having access to credit to weather the volatility. Eight major tariff adjustments in 12 months have created “policy whiplash” that large corporations can navigate but devastates smaller importers. When Trump eliminated de minimis exemptions, 4 million daily packages lost duty-free status—affecting 92% of all cargo and representing 97% of US importers.

India Sees Major Tariff Relief—US May Drop 25% Penalty, Cut Base Rate to 10-15%

India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran announced Thursday that the US is likely to eliminate the punitive 25% secondary tariff on Indian goods (imposed for Russian oil purchases) within months and reduce the reciprocal tariff from 25% to 10-15%. “I am personally confident that within the next few months, if not sooner, we will witness a resolution regarding at least the additional punitive tariff of 25%,” Nageswaran told reporters in Kolkata. This would reduce India’s effective US tariff rate from the current 50% to potentially 10-15%.

Retail Industry Develops “Tariff Hacking” Strategies to Maintain Consumer Prices

Major retailers are employing sophisticated “tariff arbitrage” strategies using wholesale middlemen and complex supply chain routing to minimize tariff impacts on consumer prices. From luxury goods to mass-market items, distributors are finding creative ways to get consumers closer to wholesale prices despite the 20%+ average US tariff environment. The strategies involve strategic inventory placement, country-of-origin optimization, and alternative shipping routes.

Canada-Mexico Summit Strengthens North American Alliance Against US Tariffs

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum concluded their Mexico City summit with agreements to boost bilateral trade and coordinate responses to US tariff pressures. Both countries are increasing trade with each other as alternatives to US markets, with Carney stating Canada’s “old relationship” with the US is “over.” The leaders pledged closer coordination during upcoming USMCA renegotiations and joint strategies for dealing with Trump’s trade policies.

“Tariff Whiplash” Hits Small US Manufacturers, Credit Constraints Loom

Latest analysis shows small manufacturers pay about $856,000 in extra annual tariff and compliance costs, with rapid “policy whiplash” from 8 changes in the past year. Only 37% of these firms have the credit access to weather ongoing volatility, driving many to reduce headcount, cancel investment, or consolidate.

Stainless Steel Orders Delayed Globally, Supply Chains Shifting:

A new Outokumpu survey of 70 top industrial buyers (combined $430B in annual revenue) finds one in three have paused or delayed stainless steel orders due to global tariff rounds and trade tension, with over half reevaluating suppliers. Automotive, construction, energy, and infrastructure projects are hardest hit, as procurement is forced to diversify and adapt to the unpredictable pricing environment.

Canadian Industrial Sectors Strain Under Escalating US Tariffs and Countermeasures

Canada removed 25% tariffs on most US goods under CUSMA as of September 1, but US duties on Canadian steel, aluminum, copper, and auto parts are expanding. US Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs (now 50% on hundreds more products) are deeply hitting Canadian transformers, railcars, wires, and clean energy equipment. Canada still maintains retaliatory tariffs on US steel, aluminum, and autos, applying pressure as 2026 CUSMA talks approach.

US Imports from China Halve—Southeast Asia and Mexico Gain

Roland Berger analysis shows US imports from China fell by half between January and May 2025, with electronics and industrial machinery dropping over 60% in June compared to January. This decline preceded the April reciprocal tariff regime, as importers scaled back orders anticipating further increases. Meanwhile, shipments from Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Mexico have spiked as companies preemptively diversify away from China.

OECD Warns Full Tariff Impact Yet to Come—Rates Hit 1933 Levels

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned Tuesday that while global growth remains more resilient than expected, the complete impact of the US import tariff shock has yet to be realized. The effective US tariff rate on merchandise imports reached approximately 19.5% by the end of August—the highest level since 1933 during the Great Depression. Companies have largely absorbed the shock by reducing profit margins and depleting inventory stockpiles accumulated before tariff announcements. “The comprehensive effects will become evident as companies exhaust inventories and elevated tariff rates continue enforcement,” stated OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann.

Construction Industry Faces ‘Lethal’ Tariff Burden—Materials Up 10-50%

Construction companies report that essential building materials—steel, aluminum, lumber, copper, and stone—now face tariffs ranging from 10% to 50%, creating unprecedented cost pressures. GI Stone’s CEO called potential 25% tariffs “lethal” for her North Side Chicago manufacturing facility, which transforms imported stone into high-end countertops. The effective US tariff rate has reached 17.4%, the highest since 1935, forcing developers to delay projects and absorb significant cost increases.

Canada Removes Most US Retaliatory Tariffs—Steel, Aluminum, Auto Duties Remain

Effective September 1, Canada eliminated 25% retaliatory tariffs on CUSMA-compliant US goods, maintaining duties only on steel, aluminum, and automobiles. The move reduces Canadian tariffs from over 1,000 product codes to just 313 HS classifications. Prime Minister Mark Carney framed the decision as advancing trade talks ahead of 2026 CUSMA renegotiations, though critics argue it represents capitulation to US pressure.

EU-US Trade Deal Implementation—15% Auto Tariffs Retroactive to August 1

The Trump administration issued formal notice Wednesday implementing the US-European Union trade agreement, confirming that auto and auto parts imports will face 15% duties retroactively from August 1. The deal exempts certain pharmaceutical compounds, all aircraft and aircraft parts, and specific natural resources. European automakers can request refunds for excess duties paid above the 15% cap since August. The agreement represents Trump’s preference for bilateral deals over multilateral frameworks.

US Manufacturing Activity Slows Further—PMI Drops to 52.0 in September

The S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.0 in September from 53.0 in August, marking the second consecutive month of deceleration. The slowdown reflects “supply chain disruptions and higher costs tied to Trump-era tariffs,” with new orders and output growth weakening significantly. Export demand softened as global buyers react to US trade policies, while domestic manufacturers face rising raw material prices. Despite high inventories, continued tariff pressure is expected to limit expansion in coming months.

China Soybean Boycott Devastates US Farmers

China has not purchased any US soybeans since May, instead pivoting to massive orders from Brazil and Argentina as the trade war escalates. US soybean export value had previously plunged from $14 billion in 2016 to $3.1 billion in 2018 during Trump’s first term, and farmers now face a similar scenario. The American Soybean Association warns of “panic” among producers as their largest market remains closed.

Tariff Investigations Remain Active—Shutdown Would Not Halt Enforcement

The Trump administration confirmed that tariff probes and collections will continue even in the event of a government shutdown, with Customs and Border Protection operations funded as essential services. Investigations remain underway into medical equipment, robotics, and additional manufacturing sectors—signaling more potential hikes ahead.

100% Movie Tariff Confirmed—Hollywood, Streaming Platforms Brace for Higher Costs

Trump reiterated his plan to enforce a 100% duty on all movies “made outside the United States,” targeting international productions distributed within US borders. The move caused share prices for Netflix and Warner Bros. to drop. The impact is expected to be severe for foreign studios and US streaming services relying on global content, potentially reshaping production and distribution strategies.

Lumber, Furniture, and Cabinet Tariffs Effective October 14—Key Rates to Rise Again in 2026

On Monday, Trump signed a proclamation imposing a 10% tariff on all imported timber and softwood lumber and a 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered furniture, starting October 14. Crucially, these tariffs will rise even further on January 1, 2026, to 30% on upholstered wooden products and 50% on cabinets and vanities for countries that do not strike an agreement with the US. Canada, the leading exporter of wood to the US, is expected to be severely impacted, as it already faces total tariffs exceeding 35%. Builders and renovators have warned these moves may discourage investment in new construction and raise housing costs.

Global Partners Forge New Trade Alliances

With US tariffs causing widespread impact, countries from Canada to the EU and Asia are ramping up new free trade agreements, seeking to offset export losses and diversify away from American demand. The ripple effects continue to disrupt established international trade routes.

Furniture, Home Goods, and Construction Bracing for Price Hikes

Consumer prices for housing, renovations, and furniture are expected to jump. US and global firms warn of possible supply shortages, longer wait times, and project delays, with small manufacturers and builders facing the greatest risk to their margins and viability as tariffs ratchet up.

Hollywood and Global Studios on Edge as 100% Movie Tariff Enforcement Looms

Trump’s renewed threat of a 100% tariff on movies made outside the US sparked fierce debate across Hollywood and global production hubs, especially in Canada and Europe. The policy’s enforceability and the scope of what constitutes a “foreign-made” movie remain unclear, but studios are bracing for contract renegotiations and higher consumer costs.

Housing Market Hit—Economists Warn of Worsening Crisis

Heavy tariffs on timber, cabinets, vanities, and furniture are expected to push new home and renovation costs higher across the US, with experts warning the moves could worsen the country’s ongoing housing crisis. Construction leaders say tariffs undermine the effects of recent Fed interest rate cuts meant to improve housing affordability.

Truck Tariffs Remain—EU, Japan Secure Some Caps, North American Makers Brace for Pain

A 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy-duty trucks is now in effect. While the White House says EU, Japan, and UK deals cap their exposure at 15% for pharma and trucks, these caps reportedly don’t extend to furniture. Canada and Mexico, both major suppliers under USMCA, face more complex compliance challenges. US truck and truck part manufacturers warn of supply chain bottlenecks as tariff stacking rules (to avoid compounding steel, aluminum, and country-of-origin duties) remain convoluted.